plotForecast#

Purpose#

Plot forecast with fan chart — observed data leading into forecast horizon with shaded prediction bands.

Format#

plotForecast(result, fc)#

Parameters:

result (struct bvarResult) – Estimation result containing historical data.
fc (struct forecastResult) – Forecast result from bvarForecast().

Examples#

Basic Forecast Plot#

library timeseries;

fname = getGAUSSHome("pkgs/timeseries/examples/data/us_macro_quarterly.csv");
data = loadd(fname, "gdp_growth + cpi_inflation + fed_funds");

ctl = bvarControlCreate();
ctl.p = 4;
ctl.ar = 0;

result = bvarFit(data, ctl);
fc = bvarForecast(result, 8);

// One line — produces m stacked panels with fan charts
plotForecast(result, fc);

Save to File#

plotForecast(result, fc);
plotSave("forecast_fan_chart.png", "px", 800 | 600);

Remarks#

Layout: For multivariate models, each variable gets its own panel in a vertical stack. Panels are auto-titled with variable names from the result struct.

Historical context: The plot shows the last 20% of the training data (or 40 observations, whichever is larger) leading into the forecast horizon. This lets you see how the forecast extends from the observed data.

Layering: Historical data is plotted as a solid black line. The forecast band is a shaded gray area between the lower and upper bounds. The forecast median is a solid blue line.

Band level: The band corresponds to the level used in the bvarForecast() call (default 68%). To show 90% bands, use bvarForecast(result, h, 0.90).